North Central Renaissance Movement: A shot at the Presidency or Vice Presidency? By Tahir Ibrahim Tahir

The North Central Renaissance Movement, NCRM, recently issued a statement, urging President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR; to drop Vice President, Senator Kashim Shettima so as to have a North Central representative on the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu ticket in 2027. This shows that they are highly optimistic of a President Tinubu victory in the 2027 elections. This unfortunately denotes that the group is not focused on a particular prize, and just seeks some sort of relevance in the political equation of the country. Why? Because a few days ago, they were with notable opposition figures, seeking a power shift to the North Central, demanding the Presidency for their zone, and encouraging politicians from the zone to contest for the Presidency come 2027. What are they really after? Presidency or VP slot? Where was the group in 2023, when the APC, in an unwritten agreement, decided to support a shift of power to the South, while the PDP fielded a northern candidate? Did they approach the PDP for a North Central power shift and demand that Atiku steps down? Or that Atiku supports a North Central candidate? When Peter Obi fielded a North Western VP candidate, did they protest or make demands on behalf of the North Central? At the end of the day, they overwhelmingly supported the Labor Party, which fielded a southern candidate, and Peter Obi scored a million votes from the region. Is the NCRM now moving to reap where it did not sow? I thought that the next politically expedient move for them would be to seek a VP slot for the region under the labor party they gave their all?

Politics is a game of numbers. Do they have the numbers to usher a win? Did they play a role in the emergence of the APC Presidency? No and no. No numbers and no support. Whomsoever is contesting for the Presidency has to be calculative enough to find the votes; the ones that are going to count, and the votes that matter the most. He has to win the highest number of votes, with a geographical spread, having 25% of the votes in atleast 24 states. This depicts that he has support from different parts of the country, and not just a regional hero. This is important for inclusivity when it comes to governance. What the North Central is deficient in, in terms of numbers, has to be compensated with by deploying political deftness. Election figures show that the North Central camped with the PDP and the LP in 2023, and have always been in bed with the PDP historically since 1999. They enjoyed the PDP years of 1999 to 2015, and were in tango with the ruling party of yesterday. Yet they never moved for the Presidency or Vice Presidency, either by working for it, or simply demanding it as they are doing now. They did not challenge Yar’adua’s pick, neither did they challenge Atiku’s pick. The most politically expedient thing to do if they are serious about the Presidency, is to launch a bid for it, under a platform that is sympathetic to their cause. Asking a party you do not support, or have never supported traditionally to give you a VP slot is just damn outrightly selfish. They are asking President Tinubu to bring down his house for them, so that the opposition they’ve been working with all these years will have an easy pass. Infact, it is a trap if you ask me. If the North Central really wanted to catch the President’s attention, they could have done so with their votes in 2023. But they didn’t, and instead, they sent in the wrong signal.

By the way, which politician from the North Central towers above Kashim today? Who is the political colossus from the zone, that can tame the sentiments from the region and secure the North Central votes, and at the same time garner North Western and North Eastern votes? Is there one or is the North Central’s sentiment bereft of political expediency? Kashim, Elrufai, and Ganduje were primed for the VP slot in 2023, and Kashim clinched it for quite an array of reasons. Kashim did not just appear on President Tinubu’s radar at the instance of the VP pick decision. He was more or less his political disciple and still is, having nurtured a relationship for almost three decades. Kashim was pivotal to the Jagaban for Presidency movement, and championed the campaigns in the senate and with former and serving governors at the time. The writer along with millions of party faithfuls and voters were also drawn to the Jagaban movement, by Kashim’s advocacy and wit. The idea that VP Shettima should be dropped is bad political advisory. President Tinubu can only hope to build and consolidate on the structures that ushered in his Presidency, while also seeking more support and patronage from the different quarters and corners of other political groups.

The muslim North is a ferocious voting group, and elections are faced with vigor and commitment. It is difficult not to contend with this reality. Invariably, the NCRM should take into consideration the second debate on whether their assumed North Central candidate is muslim or christian. They should come clean on whether they are seeking a christian candidate from the North Central as VP, or any candidate, irrespective of religion. As a politician or political strategist, I wouldn’t contemplate what will not give me or my party victory. I would love to ask the NCRM a very vital question. Are they sincerely for the victory of the APC in the 2027 elections, or for the victory of the NCRM quest for a Vice President slot on the ticket? What good is the slot to them in the face of a loss at the polls? The North East had a case for the VP slot in 2023, as the North West was just vacating the Presidency after a long eight years. However, the North West politicians still vied for the VP slot, but the North East got it eventually, in the person of Kashim. So the North East is currently occupying the VP slot after years of marginalisation. I therefore enjoin our North Central brothers to shelve their mission impossible and mission impracticable, and continue to support us, their North East brothers whom have suffered the same marginalisation they are crying over. Certainly they shouldn’t be after our marginalisation while solving theirs. That wouldn’t be coming to equity with clean hands. The proposal is: when we complete the eight years available to us with Kashim as VP, we would then join forces to support the priming of a North Central position at the helm of affairs. A North Central Presidency when power shifts in 2031, or a North Central Senate Presidency would do. That is ofcourse if we are on the same wavelength of an APC victory in 2027. If however we are not, then I guess there movement should concentrate more on the opposition figures they are in bed with, and have always been, who are already seeking a power shift to the north in 2027. Perhaps, those parties would cede the presidential ticket to them for the 2027 polls. As for our party the APC, power shift is penciled for the 2031 elections. Clearly, the NCRM power shift agenda is not welcome in the APC. Infact, they still are a little confused about what they are really after; is it the Presidency or the Vice Presidency?