Outcomes of the 2023 presidential election: My stunted crystal ball, By Tai Balofin

Three to four significant contenders are anticipated to compete for the presidency of Africa’s most populous country in the hotly contested Nigerian presidential election of 2023. The All-Progressives Congress’ (APC) Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu, the PDP’s Atiku Abubakar, the Labour Party’s Peter Obi, and the New Nigerian Peoples Party’s Rabiu Kwankwaso are the front-runners (NNPP).

Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu, Peter Obi, and Atiku Abubakar are considered to be candidates with broad appeal and are anticipated to perform well in the North West and South West geopolitical zones, according to My Crystal Bal, which is based on an analysis of various surveys and 15,000 respondents from across the six geopolitical zones of the country. Although there are fewer states in the North Central and North East regions, Rabiu Kwankwaso is considered a potential danger to the dominance of Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar in Kano and Katsina states, respectively.

According to the poll, Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar might each win enough votes in four of the nation’s six geographic zones to pass the constitutional criteria of receiving 25% of the vote in at least 24 states. Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu is anticipated to perform well in the country’s two most crucial voting states, Kano State and Lagos State, as well as the densely populated South-West and North-West states, which may give him the popular vote.

Contrary to the widely held belief that there will be no ethnic or religious prejudice in selecting the next president, many respondents have chosen for president, notwithstanding the political landscape. This choice is anticipated to span ethnic and religious boundaries. Given the power held by the center under the 1999 Constitution, the poll revealed that Nigeria’s eligible voters prefer the presidential race over all other contested positions in the 2023 election, with falling interest in down-ballot contests.
On the other hand, Nigerians are wiser and have faith in the INEC’s capacity to conduct a free, fair, and honest election. The potential impact of election day security issues, the general public’s understanding of new electoral legislation, and the biometric voter accreditation procedure all impact the relationship between the electorate and the electoral authority. Younger respondents are marginally less likely to trust the umpire than other demographic groups, with only 60% of respondents saying they believe INEC would conduct a reliable test.

The Nigerian presidential election of 2023 will have a significant impact on the entire continent of Africa as well as the entire world.

According to the results, only 66% of the study respondents said they were aware of the Election Act of 2022. Younger voters and students, who make up most voters, often indicated lower levels of election law awareness than wealthier and older respondents. Hence, it is anticipated that this information will help organizations, people, and the media make decisions that will benefit Nigeria’s future.

According to The World Bank, Nigeria has a population of 221 million people, 40% of whom are considered poor. In the country’s north, many Nigerians need access to basic infrastructure like power, clean drinking water, and better sanitary facilities. Oil theft caused a significant decline in Nigeria’s currency, the naira. An attempt to replace old banknotes with new ones has gone wrong, resulting in cash shortages, riots, and the destruction of bank structures.

Nigeria is currently dealing with several difficulties, such as the 13-year Boko Haram insurgency, secessionists in the southeast, and well-armed criminal gangs committing atrocities around the country. Due to these problems, the stakes in the next election are incredibly high, and the constitution stipulates that the winner will be the candidate who receives the most votes and at least 25% of the votes in at least two-thirds of the 36 states in Nigeria.

Two of the 18 candidates stand a chance of winning.

Due to his background and local support, Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu, the former governor of Lagos, represents the All Progressives Congress and is the most likely candidate to win. Atiku Abubakar, the candidate for the People’s Democratic Party, has failed in five prior tries to gain the top position but is considered a unifier in a split country. Nevertheless, he cannot distinguish himself from the president, Muhammadu Buhari, by hurting his followers.

Wealthy businessman Peter Obi, an outsider in the election, represent the unpopular Labour Party. He wants voters to believe that the choice between the two mainstream front-runners is just a contest between established political factions over who would control most of the nation’s riches.

The election outcome is incredibly unexpected, and the race is still tight. The fact that 75 percent of registered voters are between 18 and 49 may work to the outsider candidates’ advantage, but they must demonstrate that they can motivate younger voters to cast ballots. The counting and reporting of the election results will take roughly a few days.

In addition to respondents who reported having recently obtained Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs), the nation’s mood supported the higher likelihood of a run-off. They may have swung votes in favor of one of the four front-runners.

Only 41% of registered voters have obtained their Permanent Voter Cards, according to US African Eye’s door-to-door poll for the 2023 election (PVCs).

Our February 2023 forecasts, based on a survey of 9,000 respondents conducted door-to-door, took low turnout into account.

When our 6,500-respondent survey on PVC collection revealed a remarkable increase in PVC collection—97 percent—in January 2023, the assumption of low turnout was changed, and it was stated.

According to a report on the poll, “all respondents, or 100%, answered questions regarding the presidential elections, but only 35% responded to questions on the governorship elections, while interest in state assembly elections was 14%. Due to the power granted to the center by the 1999 Constitution, most voters are concentrating on the presidential election, which explains the decreased interest in down-ballot elections.

The study also showed that only 66 percent of participants were aware of the Election Act of 2022. The survey stated that younger voters and students, who make up most of the voters, “often indicate lower levels of election law awareness” than wealthier and older respondents.

According to UAE, Nigeria’s elections have a tremendous impact on the nation, the continent, and even the entire world.

This material is intended to assist individuals and provide institutions, people, and the media with the knowledge they need to make decisions that will benefit Nigeria’s future.

The 13-year Boko Haram insurgency, secessionists in the southeast, and well-armed criminal gangs committing crimes in several regions of Nigeria all contribute to the high stakes of the impending election. With 40% of the population living below the poverty line and many Nigerians without access to basic infrastructure like power, clean drinking water, and adequate sanitation, the nation’s economy is also having trouble.

Based upon the aforementioned permutations, surveys, assumptions, evaluations, opinions, debates, and campaigns, I formed my crystal ball forecasting for the election.

South West

  1. Lagos: 80% APC, 10% PDP, and 10% LP Winner: APC
  2. Ogun: APC 90%, PDP 8%, and LP 2% Winner: APC
  3. Oyo: 82% APC, 12% PDP, and 6% LP Winner: APC
  4. Osun APC 67%, PDP 32%, and LP 1% Winner: APC
  5. Ondo: 87% APC, 10% PDP, and 3% LP Winner: APC
  6. Ekiti: APC 90%, PDP 9%, and LP 1% Winner: APC

South-South

  1. Edo: APC 48%, PDP 33%, and LP 19% Winner: APC
  2. Delta: PDP 51%, APC 40%, and LP 8% – Winner PDP
  3. Bayelsa: APC 45%, PDP 52%, and LP 3% – Winner PDP
  4. Rivers – 68% APC, 22% PDP, and 10% LP Winner: APC
  5. Cross River: 72% APC, 26% PDP, and 2% LP Winner: APC
  6. Akwa Ibom APC 88%, PDP 10%, and LP 2% Winner APC

North Central

  1. Kwara APC 74%, PDP 25%, and LP 1% Winner: APC
  2. Kogi: 71% APC, 23% PDP, and 6% LP Winner: APC
  3. Niger APC 44%, PDP 52%, and LP 4% Winner – PDP
  4. Benue – 38% APC, 55% PDP, and 7% LP -Winner- PDP
  5. Nasarawa APC 63%, PDP 28%, and LP 9% Winner: APC
  6. Plateau: 55% APC, 38% PDP, and 7% LP Winner:
    FCT: APC 36%, PDP 58%, LP 6%; Winner: PDP

North West

  1. Kaduna – APC 43%, PDP 30%, LP 5%, APC 22% – Winner: APC
  2. Katsina – APC 43%, PDP
    24%, LP 7%, NNPP 26% Winner: APC
  3. Kano 38% APC, 34% PDP, 2% LP, and 26% NNPP Winner: APC
  4. Kebbi 47% APC, 32% PDP, 2% LP, and 19% NNPP. Winner: APC
  5. Sokoto APC 33%, PDP 39%, LP 2%, NNPP 26% Winner: PDP

24: Jigawa: 44% APC, 36% PDP, 2% LP, and 18% NNPP. Winner: APC

  1. Zamfara: APC 41%, PDP 40%, LP 1%, NNPP 18%; Winner: APC

North East

  1. Borno APC 88%, PDP 10%, and LP 2%; Winner: APC
  2. Yobe 75% APC, 22% PDP, and 3% LP Winner: APC
  3. Adamawa: 31% APC,
    62% PDP, and 7% LP – Winner: PDP
  4. Bauchi APC 53%, PDP 42%, and LP 5% Winner: APC
  5. Gombe: 38% APC, 56% PDP, and 6% LP – Winner: PDP.
  6. Taraba: 32% APC, 52% PDP, and 6% LP – Winner: PDP.

South East

  1. Abia APC 33%, PDP 26%, and LP 41% Winner LP
  2. Anambra APC 28%, PDP 7%, and LP 65% Winner: LP
  3. Ebonyi – APC 62%, PDP 7%, LP 31%; Winner: APC
    35 Enugu – APC 43%, PDP 12%, LP 45%; Winner: LP
    35 Imo – APC 56%, PDP 6%, LP 38%; Winner: APC

We can look at the party with the highest percentage of votes to establish the portion of the projected winner for each state.

South West:
Lagos – 80% APC
Ogun – 90% APC
Oyo – 82% APC
Osun – 67% APC
Ondo – 87% APC
Ekiti – 90% APC

APC is the projected winner of all South West states, with an average vote share of 83.33%.

South-South

Edo 48% APC,
Delta 51% PDP
Bayelsa – 52% PDP
Rivers – 68% APC
Cross River: 72% APC
Akwa Ibom: 88% APC

As a result, APC is the projected winner in 4 of the 6 South-South states, while PDP is predicted to win in 2. The average percentages for the APC and PDP are 69.33% and 51.5%, respectively.

North Central:

Kwara, 74% APC
Kogi – 71% APC
Niger: 52% PDP
Benue – 55% PDP
Nasarawa: 63% APC
Plateau 55% APC
FCT – PDP 58%

As a result, APC is the projected winner in 4 of the 7 North Central states, including FCT, while PDP may succeed in three. The average percentages for the APC and PDP are 64.67% and 52%, respectively.

North West

Kaduna 43% APC
Katsina – 43% APC
Kano – 38% APC
Kebbi – 47% APC
Sokoto: 39% PDP
Jigawa – 44% APC
Zamfara – 40% APC
As a result, APC is projected to win in 6 of the 7 North West states, while PDP may succeed in one. The average percentages for the APC and PDP are 43.86% and 39%, respectively.

North East

Borno 88% APC
Yobe – 75% APC
Adamawa: 62% PDP
Bauchi – 53% APC
Gombe – 56% PDP
Taraba: 52% PDP

As a result, PDP is projected to win in 3 of the 6 North East states, while APC may win in 3. The average percentages for the APC and PDP are 72% and 56.67%, respectively.

South East

Abia 41% LP
Anambra – 65% LP
Ebonyi – 62% APC
Enugu – 45% LP
Imo – 56% of APC

APC is thus projected to prevail in two of the six South East states, while LP is projected to triumph in the remaining three. The average percentages for the APC, LP and PDP are 59%, 53%, and 32.5%.

Generally, depending on the location and party, the average winning percentage in each state varies, ranging from 32.5% to 83.33%.

Based on the facts supplied, the All-Progressives Congress (APC) is projected to win the presidential election in 21 of the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). In contrast, the Labour Party (LP) is projected to win in three states, and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is anticipated to succeed in twelve.

-Balofin, PhD is an academic and publisher

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